How Much Should The Rate Of Return Of Investments Be?
To a majority of investors looking at an investment, the rate of return is an important consideration. When presented with an investment opportunity, the first question they ask is the rate of return. The rate of return of investment is often examined with reference to a certain period of time.
There is a question that all investors ask inevitably: how much can be considered appropriate rate of return? How much is the best or ideal rate of return by which we could measure investments by? When the bank tells you to save your money in a time deposit account because it pays 5% rate of return compounded annually, how can you tell that you are making a good investment with a good rate of return?
To answer this properly, three factors need to be considered seriously: inflation, taxation and the highest rate of return for what is considered as the “safest investment”.
First off, what is inflation? According to Wikipedia, it is “a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time”. Inflation gnaws at the value of your money. So your P1,000 now may not be worth the same 20 years from now because the prices of goods and services keep increasing. Your P1,000 3 years from now may not be able to buy as much as you can buy today for the same cost.
Next, what is taxation? We all understand what it is. Taxation is what keeps the government ticking. How much tax we pay varies, depending on whoever is in power.
The third factor is the highest rate of return possible for what is considered as the safest investment – government bonds. Fully backed by the government, they should be very safe. Except when the country is in a political mess, it is unlikely for a government to go bankrupt and therefore, it is also unlikely that the government will turn its back on its obligation.
Using these three factors, we now have the complete inputs to the process of computing the ideal rate of return.
Mary Buffett and David Clark explain in the book “Buffetology” the interplay between these three factors. According to Warren Buffett, one of the world’s wealthiest and greatest stock market investor that the minimum rate of investment should not fall below 15%. In Chapter 25 of the book, the author estimated that just to cushion inflation and taxation, a 7.2% return on investment is needed. The book concludes that “to have a real increase in your wealth, it is necessary that the return on your wealth be at least equal to the effects of taxation and inflation”.
Discussing further the effect of inflation and taxation on the rate of return, the author wrote that investing in bonds with an annual compounding rate of return of 8% would probably net a rate of return of only 0.5% (8% less 31% income tax, less 5% inflation). Or zero rate of return even, should the inflation rate rise to 9%. For this reason, if the annual rate of return offered falls below 8%, it does not make sense to invest, government bonds or not.
Warren Buffett believes in the having a “wide margin of safety”. That is the reason why he insists on a 15% rate of return. Net of inflation and taxes, he is assured with a growth of about 8% rate of return compounded annually.
What is special about government bonds that we are seriously considering it? Not only are they known to be the safest investment but it can also give the highest possible rate of return. Thus it is the standard by which all other investments can be measured. So if in your evaluation, an investment can only give an 8% rate of return for your investment, you would be a lot better off investing in a government bond that guarantees 8% return on investment, rather than risking it in other investments. But if a certain investment has a rate of return of over and above 15%, then put your money in that investment rather than in government bonds.
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February 24, 2010 | Posted by Zigfred Diaz
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